Uncertainty was handled within an ensemble forecasting framework ( Araújo & New 2007), implemented with 7 bioclimatic modelling techniques × 3 general circulation models × 4 emission scenarios, and were projected into a baseline period and three periods in the future (see Materials and Methods) 336 projections were obtained for each of 1883 species, yielding a total of 632 688 projections. Even though the proportion of plant species available for modelling is smaller than for vertebrates, they provide a representative sample of the species’ responses to climate change as most life forms among European plants are included ( Thuiller et al. 75% of terrestrial vertebrates ( n = 585) of Europe and c. We assessed impacts of climate change on c. Essentially, ensembles of BEMs have been shown to project successfully the direction of range changes for most species under climate change, while being less effective in estimating the magnitude of such changes ( Araújo et al. 2007), models including a thorough treatment of algorithmic uncertainties followed by careful interpretation of results remain a useful tool for forecasting continental-wide impacts of climate change on large numbers of species ( Araújo et al. Although specific uses of BEM have been criticized (e.g. Implementations of these methods as well as their uncertainties have been extensively reviewed (e.g. These models use associations between climate and species’ occurrences to enable projections of future altered potential distributions of species under climate change scenarios. The conservation of such ‘climate refugia’ is of critical importance for biodiversity, but are existing European conservation areas up to the task?Īssessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity have often used bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Some species might persist only if they can colonize new areas when their former ranges become unsuitable, while others might persist in areas where they retain portions of their current ranges ( Hannah et al. Forecasts project even greater changes for the 21st century (e.g. While actions to mitigate climate change and its impacts are being debated worldwide, biologists are finding evidence that across a wide range of taxonomic and functional groups species already are responding to climate change by altering their phenology, and geographical distributions ( Hickling et al. Yet, it is becoming evident that in addition to providing sustainable management of habitats and ecosystems, effective conservation strategies need to mitigate impacts of climate change. Even though a variety of conservation areas exist in Europe, a common assumption is that successful management is achieved by protecting the valued features from the processes that threaten them. In the 27 countries that constitute the EU, the Natura 2000 contributes 27 661 sites covering 117 million hectares (17% of the EU surface) ( E.C. The Natura 2000 network includes two sets of areas: Special Protection Areas (SPAs) are classified under the Birds Directive to help conserve important sites for rare and vulnerable birds Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) are classified under the Habitats Directive to conserve rare and vulnerable non-bird animals, plants and habitats. national parks, natural parks, nature reserves, protected landscapes, etc.), which are designated by individual countries, the European Union (EU) established the Natura 2000 network to ensure the long-term survival of its most valuable biodiversity. With more than 100 000 sites across 54 countries, Europe has more protected areas than any other region in the World. New policies are required to avert this risk. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe’s biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas ( P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492 AbstractĮurope has the world’s most extensive network of conservation areas.
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